Geometric Distribution
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Calculate
Example: a salesperson closes a deal on 20% of calls. What is the chance that the first sale of the day comes exactly on the 4th call? Change the values to work out your own case.
Step by step
What each term means
- Probability of the First Success (P(X = k))
- The chance that the first success happens exactly on trial k, with k = 1, 2, 3, …
- Failures Before the Success ((1 − p)ᵏ⁻¹)
- The chance that the first k − 1 trials all fail. Since the trials are independent, the failure chances multiply.
- Probability of Success (p)
- The chance of success on each trial, the same on all of them. It closes the sequence: the success, at last, on trial k.